This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 31st Market Outlook here at Ostium Research, we'll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, focusing specifically on price-action, positioning and event risk for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Copper, Gold and altcoins, via OTHERS.
Firstly, let's take a look at the calendar, with another action-packed week ahead:
MONDAY: FED'S WALLER AND HARKER SPEECHES
TUESDAY: FED'S BOSTIC SPEECH
TUESDAY: US NY EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING INDEX (APR): (CONSENSUS -14.8 VS PREVIOUS -20)
WEDNESDAY: CHINA GDP (YOY) (Q1): (CONSENSUS 5.1% VS PREVIOUS 5.4%)
WEDNESDAY: US RETAIL SALES (MOM) (MAR): (CONSENSUS 1.3% VS PREVIOUS 0.2%)
WEDNESDAY: US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (MAR): (CONSENSUS -0.3% VS PREVIOUS 0.7%)
WEDNESDAY: BOC INTEREST RATE DECISION: (CONSENSUS 2.75% VS PREVIOUS 2.75%)
WEDNESDAY: FED CHAIR POWELL SPEECH
THURSDAY: ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION: (CONSENSUS 2.4% VS PREVIOUS 2.65%)
THURSDAY: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: (CONSENSUS 224K VS PREVIOUS 223K)
THURSDAY: US PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING (APR): (CONSENSUS 6.8 VS PREVIOUS 12.5)
Now, let's dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at Bitcoin:
Bitcoin:
Price: $84,492
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for BTC, we can see that price pushed through March lows early last week into $73.8k, bouncing off that level as historical resistance turned support before closing the week near weekly highs, firmly back above the Q2 (April) open. This occurred on the highest volume in several weeks and we should now see $74k protected as support if we are indeed seeing the bottoming pattern play out here. I would not be surprised to see a small dip this week to retest some local support but I fully expect $78.3k to act as reclaimed support and price to begin making higher-lows from here, with another retest of $89k likely. Close the weekly above $89k and we are back inside the prior range, from which I would expect continuation to retest all-time highs later in Q2. The invalidation for this view is a weekly close below $74k, turning that key support into resistance, where I would then expect re-accumulation to occur within that mid-2024 range.
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see that price is creeping out above trendline resistance from the all-time highs as momentum is beginning to shift towards an uptrend. Daily structure is still bearish whilst that $89k swing-high continues to cap price but this is constructive price-action in the face of what was a historically volatile week in markets. We are currently consolidating around the March open and above the Q2 open, but I would be looking for some sort of dip back below that Q2 open to form a higher-low this week before continuation into the 200dMA retest at $87.5k and then $89k. An early warning sign for a retest of the 360dMA and $74k lows would be flipping $81.4k support into resistance...
Now, looking at potential intraweek setups, on the long side it would be nice to see those weekend highs remain unswept early in the week, with a flush of the weekly open at $83.3k into that $81.4k level going into mid-week to form a higher-low, where we could look to add half around that level and add more on a reclaim of the weekly open, expecting a run of $86k into the April highs at $88.6k:
Those with a short bias this week want to see that Sunday high taken out early this week, leaving the weekly low untagged, particularly given its formation right around weekly open, then looking to enter on a breakdown back below $85.7k and add on accpetance below March open, looking for $81.4k to be tagged later on in the week and potentially price push lower than that into the close:
And here's 3-month annualized basis, which remains at Q4 2023 lows:
As well as a snapshot of positioning on Velo and CoinGlass:
And finally here are the 1-month and 1-week anticipated liquidation levels:
Ethereum:
Price: $1625
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Beginning with ETH/USD, we can see that price formed a bit of a reversal hammer off that 2018 cycle high at $1420 on the highest volume in over a year, closing out the week back at the 360wMA. I did say last week that despite the chart looking atrocious you should unequivocally not be looking for shorts between $1420 and $1535 and we are now flipping that range into support. That said, ETH is pushing up against local trendline resistance here, with historical support turned resistance overhead at $1750. To be honest, this remains one of less attractive assets to trade on either side at the moment given the structure and unless we close the week above $1750 - providing plenty of upside potential into $2100 - I wouldn't touch this yet.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we are starting to see some signs of momentum exhaustion into the lows but it remains extremely choppy with no higher-high on daily RSI yet. If last week was a mid-term low for ETH/USD, we should see $1535 act as support this week, leading to a retest of $1750 and trendline resistance, where any acceptance through both makes longs a much more favourable prospect back into that $2077 level. I would potentially look to long a dip next week if we get acceptance above $1750 this week but lets see how things shape up; again, there are currently much more attractive charts around from a market structure POV.
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly for ETH/BTC, we can see that price closed out the week at fresh lows above 0.019, firmly stuck in no man's land between prior support at 0.023 and the 2019 lows at 0.016. Momentum remains bearish here with no signs of trend exhaustion and really what we should be looking for here is some sort of capitulation wick lower on high volume or trend exhaustion on the lower timeframes. No reason to be overweight ETH until it gives you a reason to - and those reasons are non-existent at present. Not much else to say for now...
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we do have some minor trend exhaustion into 0.0187 but nothing of substance really; I would rather see another push lower through that support into next week with a stronger bullish divergence and then a reclaim of 0.019 as support to really get interested in this. Looking ahead, you're not really getting much by way of sustained reversal until this clears both trendline resistance from the 2025 highs and 0.023, which was the low of the highest volume daily candle and historical support turned resistance - above that we are golden for a squeeze at least as high as the 200dMA at 0.032 if not much higher if the longer-term trend is turning. Until then, just keep an eye on price-action here but don't get too excited...
Subscribe to Ostium Labs
Receive the latest updates directly to your inbox
Your subscription could not be saved. Please try again.
Your subscription has been successful.
Gold:
Price: $3230
Weekly
Gold is top of mind for everyone at present, given its relentless strength into wave after wave of volatility - and this is objectively true given that worldwide searches for 'how to buy gold' are nearing both August 2011 and August 2020 highs, which funnily enough marked multi-year tops. Whilst the strength of gold cannot be understated, it is edging closer and closer with each push higher to becoming a crowded bet, much like the Dollar at 110 in January. I have been structurally bullish on Gold since the breakout beyond $2075 but I think we're at most a couple of months away from a major top, though perhaps as close as a couple of weeks.
Looking at the weekly, however, momentum is still firmly bullish, and last week saw a huge engulfing candle through recent consolidation at $3167 into fresh all-time highs at $3245 on the highest volume since early 2022. I would expect to see continuation this week as price-action continues to resemble that of a blow-off top, where declining volume into fresh highs with trend exhaustion on momentum indicators would be the confluence I am looking for from a major topping pattern. $3280 is the next area of resistance as per fib extensions - and if we blow through that then I am looking at the range between $3600 and $3700, where I will also be paying close attention to those search trends; an all-time high in worldwide searches for 'how to buy gold' above both the August 2011 and August 2020 highs would be as close to peak mindshare as one could expect, and then we'd need to see the price-action provide us with a short entry.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, one possible path to a major top assuming we are quite close here (and thus not extending into $3600) would be a retest of $3167 as resistance turned support this week, leading to a higher-high into that $3300 area next week with lower-highs on daily RSI and AO, where we would then expect a breakdown back below $3167 to follow, marking out that top. From there, I would expect several months of corrective price-action back into $2800 at the very least. If we do not see trend exhaustion but rather momentum pushes fresh highs as price moves higher, this scenario is invalidated and we'd look for that real blow-off top into the higher price targets and then re-assess. For the first time in over a year I am not looking for longs anymore in Gold.
Copper:
Price: $4.59
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for Copper, firstly thank fuck I was fully out of my position at my original $5.20 target because the subsequent weeks to that wick through 2024 highs saw Copper erase months of gains back into the 200wMA above my original entry at $4.05. I do think that the knee-jerk move in response to tariff volatility was likely overdone and price did bounce off that confluence of support to close last week back above $4.55 on huge volume. I think the long-term trend here remains intact in spite of tariffs and whilst $4.05 is support we should expect the top side of this range to lead to a breakout later this year, with $5.90 as the next target, so I am now once again looking for Copper longs over the coming weeks - but not just yet.
Daily:
If we look at the daily, what I would like to see here after the insane whipsaw price-action is some sort of consolidation and higher-low pattern form, where I would look to be a buyer going into May around the 200dMA and 360dMA confluence with trendline support around $4.35. I want price to have time and space before it retests that area, so if we get it this week I'm not a buyer. If we begin to close below $4.32 and flip that level as resistance, we are very likely to return to the bottom of the range at $4.05. If I don't get my consolidation and higher-low pattern play out over the coming weeks and instead this starts to v-reverse, I'd expect resistance to step in around $4.90 and would have to turn to lower timeframes for a potential entry with a tighter invalidation from there, but let's see. I would not be jumping into longs rights here.
Others:
Price: $207.6bn
OTHERS/USD
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for OTHERS, we can see that alts continued grinding lower, capped by trendline resistance from the 2024 highs into the 200wMA, before capitulating through that support below the election lows at $191bnn, finding support at $177bn before closing the week right below that 200wMA. This is a not too dissimilar correction to that which we saw from March 2024 into August 2024 and I am now expecting a bottom to form here going into May and the trend to turn higher, where any weekly close back above $230bn is confirmation of this. A weekly close below $177bn, however, would open up an August-esque capitulation candle into that $150bn support above the 360wMA that held firm through the bear market.
Daily:
If we look at the daily, the trajectory I marked out in February following price flipping $280bn as resistance has now played out, with my base case being that last week's leg lower is likely to be the bottom. We have wiped out all gains post-Trump election, sentiment is in the bear market troughs and derivatives are also back at pre-election levels. Meanwhile, as show in the below chart, the lagged liquidity correlation that has been super tight for alts since Q4 2023 is suggestive of tailwinds vs headwinds going into July. This is the perfect recipe for a reversal, in my view. What we could see here is this week lead to a marginal lower-low below last week's low with bullish divergence, but again my base case is that we actually form a higher-low this week above $190bn and OTHERS then retests trendline resistance from there, with acceptance above both that trendline and the confluence of resistance between $230-240bn being the clearest signal for a sustained reversal. To be clear, if we flip that overhead resistance as support, I am expecting fresh highs beyond the 2024 highs to follow over the coming months, which is also what liquidity tailwinds are suggesting:
Daily (2):
OTHERS/BTC
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for OTHERS/BTC, we remain consolidating above the February lows, only marginally wicking below last week but closing green. Structure remains bearish here until we reclaim ~3mn BTC as support and if we close the weekly below 2.36mn BTC we have basically no support all the way down into 1.425mn - the December 2020 low. Whilst the ALT/USD outlook is looking favourable, we have yet to see this translate on the ALT/BTC pairs and for those looking for the clearest signal before allocating, you wanna see at least the 2.83mn BTC level get reclaimed as support before adding more risk. If we do flip this overhead resistance as support, I expect the reversal to be very sharp, as is often the way with alts...
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see that support at 2.63mn BTC is acting as resistance at present but volume continues to decline as OTHERS/BTC makes fresh lows. If we do close below 2.36mn on the daily, we need to see that coupled with bullish divergence and then that trend exhaustion validated by a push higher, reclaiming 2.63mn BTC as support - in that scenario, you've got a really nice setup for continuation higher to reclaim both of those higher timeframe levels overhead. If, instead, momentum makes fresh lows on any downside through last week's low, we've got another leg lower to come - and given the lack of meaningful support above that December 2020 low it could be a sharp one. I am expecting the Dollar chart to lead and the BTC outperformance to follow from there, and thus if OTHERS flips $230bn as support, then we should see OTHERS/BTC start showing signs of strength leading to further outperformance in alts...
I hope you've found some value in the read this week!
And if you've not already signed up for Ostium, please do so and test out some of the recent updates, including:
On-chain leverage for indices including NDX, SPX, FTSE & more...
Unified accounts and gas-free trading
Imminent listing of single-stock perpetuals, including TSLA, NVDA and META (but you didn't hear that from me...)
-2025-04-14_08_31_14.png)
-2025-04-14_08_28_57.png)
