This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 38th Market Outlook here at Ostium Research, we'll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, focusing specifically on price-action, positioning and event risk for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold and Copper.
Firstly, let's take a look at the calendar, with an inflation-heavy end of the week but relatively little else:
WEDNESDAY: US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (MOM) (MAY): (CONSENSUS 0.2% VS PREVIOUS 0.2%)
WEDNESDAY: US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD & ENERGY (YOY) (MAY): (CONSENSUS 2.9% VS PREVIOUS 2.8%)
THURSDAY: US PRODUCER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD & ENERGY (YOY) (MAY): (CONSENSUS 3% VS PREVIOUS 3.1%)
THURSDAY: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: (CONSENSUS 239K VS PREVIOUS 247K)
FRIDAY: US MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX (JUNE): (CONSENSUS 53.5 VS PREVIOUS 52.2)
Now, let's dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at Bitcoin:
Bitcoin:
Price: $107,650
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for BTC/USD, we can see that despite the early June weakness price managed to bounce off above that key $100k area to close the week marginally green at $105.8k, confirming that prior resistance as support. As long as last week's low now holds as support, we should see continuation from here through the rest of June, with an all-time high retest of $112k likely this week, followed by expansion into that $124k level, with the potential for overextension into $133k in July. There is nothing remotely bearish about this weekly structure nor momentum, so until price-action tells us the trend has ended - which here would now be a weekly close below last week's low - we should continue to expect upside continuation.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see that price sold off hard into that $100k level, sweeping many untapped lows into major support before immediately reversing in the v-shaped manner I outlined last week. We have since pushed back above $105k as resistance turned support and are on the cusp of both a trendline breakout and turning the daily structure bullish once again with the higher-high (although, as highlighted last week, this entire retracement up until that push below $101k was all above the prior swing-low and thus less concerning from a structural POV). If this is a fake-out and bears are in control, we should see an immediate rejection up here in the manner of the bounce off $100k and price should then break back below the June open swiftly, which would look much more like a bull trap from which we likely take out the $100k low and the structure looks markedly weaker. If this does not happen and we continue to reclaim support and push higher, any daily close above prior highs at $109.4k will open up that ATH retest into $112k, which I do not expect to hold this time. Acceptance above $112k = $124k shortly thereafter.
Now, looking at potential setups for the week, on the long side you would look for any sharp, aggressive retest of the weekly open at $105.8k early this week with invalidation on a daily close below the June open at $104.6k:
And on the short side, to be honest you're kind of looking for something similar except you're just playing the early week portion of the trade, where bearish divergence into prior highs at $109.4k = opportunity to fade for a retest of that weekly open and potentially a squeeze into June open. I would not look to hold shorts beyond that, instead looking for fresh shorts based on a structural shift if we flip the June open into resistance:
And here's a snapshot of positioning across Velo and CoinGlass:
And here's 3-month annualized basis:
And Bitcoin OI vs Altcoin OI:
And finally some of the expected 1-week and 1-month liquidation levels:
Ethereum:
Price: $2539
ETH/USD
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for ETH/USD, we can see that price continues to consolidate in this range between the 2024 open as support at $2281 and support turned resistance at $2850, with every weekly close failing to breach the Q4 2024 open at $2600. Last week saw price hold above the 200wMA but again fail to break and close above local resistance. Momentum has flatlined and volume is declining within this range, which is classical compression from which we see expansion. Whatever direction comes next, it would be wise not to fade it, and if we close the weekly below $2281 then it is likely much of this rally gets retraced back towards the 360wMA; conversely, and more likely in my view, if we close the weekly above $2600, I think we push into that $2850-$3050 range swiftly, which is the final major resistance cluster before retesting the 2024 highs around $4095.
Daily:
Looking now at the daily, we can see that price swept local lows last week but bounced above reclaimed support at $2394, with momentum having completely reset on this timeframe. What we now need to see if the bullish view on ETH is correct is for price to break and close above $2600, and in doing so print a momentum breakout. That would make it high probability that we see expansion towards $3050, where I expect some resistance to step in before price ultimately retests the 2025 open at $3330 over the coming weeks; acceptance above that level will then lead to the next leg higher into the 2024 highs. But one thing at a time for ETH...
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Looking at ETH/BTC on the weekly, we can see that much like the Dollar pair we continue to consolidate, here above reclaimed support at 0.023 but failing to push beyond 0.0265 on the wicks higher. Momentum remains in a longer-term downtrend and the one thing that will take ETH from disbelief into hope would be expansion higher here on ETH/BTC into 0.0295, making higher-highs on weekly RSI above 50. If we see that, the reversal is unlike any other fakeouts we have see so far from local bottoms and it will likely lead to a very fast move higher to take out months of bleeding lower. If we turn 0.023 into resistance, no bueno and price returns towards 0.0185 to try to form a higher-low above that area and go again at a later date.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we continue to hold above 0.023 as support and momentum has now reset to 50 on daily RSI following this sideways consolidation. I still would not rule out one more wick lower below 0.023 into 0.0215 followed by a sharp v-reversal off that area. Only if we flip all this recent support into resistance does the picture look more bleak for ETH/BTC - until then, I expect this range to resolve higher with any acceptance above 0.0265 leading to a 200dMA retest and then expansion towards the major resistance cluster at 0.0365.
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Gold:
Price: $3315
Weekly:
On the weekly view for Gold, we can see that price continues to struggle right around this $3300 area, having failing to break and hold above that zone since the all-time highs formed. Counter to my mid-term view on Gold being continuation lower to re-accumulate before resuming the bull trend, the longer we consolidate and coil right around this resistance the more I expect the trend to continue higher without a deeper pull-back than the $3118 low. If the mid-term bearish view is to play out, we would need to see this resistance lead to lower prices into early Q3, in my view. Any acceptance above $3330ish and flipping that level as support on this timeframe also invalidates my view on Gold and I would take off the short Gold leg of my long BTC / short Gold pair trade.
Daily:
You can see these scenarios more clearly on the daily timeframe, where price has broken beyond trendline resistance form the all-time highs, turning daily structure bullish but remaining below the $3441 swing-high that preceded the $3118 swing-low. Price has since retraced lower into that trendline, where if the bullish scenario is real we should see a higher-low form this week from which price breaks higher through $3441. If we don't see that, then this has all been a bull trap within a broader distribution, and we should then see the local low at $3250 closed below, shifting back to bearish structure and trapping breakout longs. This would lead to that more protracted correction into the $29xx area over summer, likely inverse to the Dollar. Let's see how things look going into mid-June...
Copper:
Price: $4.92
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly view for Copper, we can see that price is coiling beneath reclaimed resistance at $4.92 having marked out a higher-low as anticipated above prior resistance turned support at $4.60. We wicked above that resistance into $5.04 last week but closed below, though higher-lows continue to be made. I am expecting this resistance to give way on the next attempt, with any weekly close above the level opening up new yearly highs above $5.40 as the next target. The trend is firmly up and to the right into H2.
Daily:
Finally, on the daily, we can see the trajectory I marked out in April for Copper, having played out relatively tightly with that consolidation above support now leading to expansion into resistance. Momentum is finally kicking higher and I would like to see a daily close above the Q2 open at $5.08 to confirm that the next leg higher of this trend has begun. For those looking for entries, a pull-back from here towards $4.70ish would be a great opportunity, but more likely than that is buying the retest of $4.92 from above after we accept through it. I think the back end of 2025 is going to be a scorcher for copper.
I hope you've found some value in the read this week!
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