This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 39th Market Outlook here at Ostium Research, we'll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, focusing specifically on price-action, positioning and event risk for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Crude Oil and SPX.
Firstly, we've had an insane week or two of market-wide volatility, and there are plenty of speeches and data releases in the week ahead to further bolster that volatility:
MONDAY: ECB PRESIDENT LAGARDE SPEECH
MONDAY: VARIOUS FED SPEECHES
MONDAY: US S&P GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI (JUNE): (CONSENSUS 51 VS PREVIOUS 52)
MONDAY: US S&P GLOBAL SERVICES PMI (JUNE): (CONSENSUS 52.9 VS PREVIOUS 53.7)
TUESDAY: VARIOUS FED SPEECHES
TUESDAY: FED CHAIR POWELL TESTIFIES
WEDNESDAY: FED CHAIR POWELL TESTIFIES
THURSDAY: US DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (MAY): (CONSENSUS 6.8% VS PREVIOUS -6.3%)
THURSDAY: US GDP ANNUALIZED (Q1): (CONSENSUS -0.2% VS PREVIOUS -0.2%)
THURSDAY: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: (CONSENSUS 247K VS PREVIOUS 245K)
FRIDAY: VARIOUS FED SPEECHES
FRIDAY: US CORE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (MOM) (MAY): (CONSENSUS 0.1% VS PREVIOUS 0.1%)
Now, let's dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at Bitcoin:
Bitcoin:
Price: $101,922
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at BTC on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price rejected the retest of all-time highs at $112k and then continued that loss of momentum last week by selling through the weekly open into $99k resistance turned support, where it bounced to close the week out just shy of $101k. Whilst the rejection from prior all-time highs shows weakness, structurally there isn't much that has changed on this timeframe just yet - that said, should we now close back below $99k, reclaiming that level as resistance, then we're likely to trade lower into $89k as the next major support level, potentially forming some sort of inverse H&S with a retest and breakout beyond the highs more likely coming in late Q3 / early Q4 in that scenario. The longer-term bull trend remains intact as long as we do not then close below $74k, which is currently the higher-low on the weekly timeframe. If, however, we wick below $99k and find support going into early July, it becomes more probable that the ATH breakout follows earlier, where we would then be looking for a weekly close above $109.4k to cement price discovery. From a momentum and positioning POV, it looks more like Dec 23 into Jan 24 than it does March 24 or Feb 25, and whilst I think the $99k level is key for determining whether we get that longer consolidation prior to breakout, to be clear I do not see anything here that suggests a deep correction back into the $7xxxx region nor a bear market. The duration of the consolidation is likely dependent on the reaction here at $99k into early July: lose it and we touch grass until mid-late August.
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see that daily structure is now bearish following the close below the prior swing-low that led to the lower-high, though we did fail to close below the $100.7k swing-low that preceded the run to $112k, so it's not as clear a structural picture as it might appear at a glance. In some sense, we're actually just in a sideways range between $100k-$110k with deviations either side of the range since May. Momentum is however trending down, which favours bears short-term, and If this $102.5k - $105k area caps price this week and forms another lower-high, it is likely we lose $99k, with $96k as the next support, right at the 200dMA and above the May open and the 2025 open. Conversely, if this is a bear trap below $100k, bulls should push this back above the June open into the monthly close, trapping shorts and likely leading to a squeeze higher in early July. Big week ahead?
Turning now to potential setups for the week, on the long side I would say you want to see resistance into $102.5k, leaving the weekend highs untapped, with weakness into mid-week with a sweep of today's low, looking to enter on a subsequent reclaim of $99k and add back above the weekly open, with a view to retest that June open at $104.5k:
On the short side, if we can squeeze a bit higher early this week, taking out weekend highs and leaving the weekly open unswept, then print some bearish divergence below $105k, that would be an opportunity to fade back into $100k at least if not $98k:
And here's a snapshot of positioning across Velo and CoinGlass:
And here's 3-month annualized basis:
And Bitcoin OI vs Altcoin OI:
And finally some of the expected 1-week and 1-month liquidation levels:
Ethereum:
Price: $2240
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for ETH/USD, after several weeks of consolidation below the Q4 open at $2600 but above the 200wMAat $2436, price rejected hard last week and broke below the 200wMA, pushing as low as $2158 major support before closing the week marginally below the 2024 open. Momentum has turned lower and remains in a downtrend, but price is now right at that key multi-year pivot, so jumping into any shorts right here doesn't make a lot of sense in my opinion. Rather, if we see a weekly (and monthly) close below $2158 then we can look to play ETH lower from there in July all the way back into the 360wMA at $1650, confirming the move back above the pivot and subsequent range as a bull trap and distribution before what is likely to be a sweep of the $1420 low. If instead this area holds as support, then you want to await a weekly close above $2600 before looking for longs for significant further upside, with this move lower having been the bear trap. In between $2158 and $2600 I just expect participants to continue to get chopped apart.
Daily:
I have marked this out on the daily, where I originally expected us to retest $2158 in late May / early June but we deviated instead above $2710 into $2850 resistance and then rug-pulled from there back below all the local resistance levels, having now taken out both sides of the range into major support at $2158. As mentioned above, lose $2158 and I think we unwind this entire May rally back into at least $1793; if we can hold above it into July, look for acceptance back above that $2600 area, where we would then clear much of the overhead resistance and this move lower will act as the spring for the yearly open retest at $3330, followed by continuation higher from there. Daily structure and momentum are bearish, so again this favours bears here but at the very least we should see $2530 retested before any further downside below $2158 towards that May open. It is 100% make or break time for ETH - either this is the final bear trap below a re-accumulation range or the entire May rally has been a major bull trap and distribution; we'll find out pretty soon I'm sure...
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly for ETH/BTC, we can see that after weeks of holding above key reclaimed support, price closed below 0.023 last week, with momentum still very much trending lower. This would suggest that the pair is going to move back towards 0.0186 from here to try to form a higher-low, assuming 0.023 now acts as resistance again. If the pair can close back above 0.023 this week, then the move looks like a deviation of the multi-week range and we can be a bit more optimistic from there on continuation into 0.0294. Again, very much make or break areas here...
Daily:
Dropping into the daily, as mentioned in the last Outlook we still expected a potential wick lower into 0.0215 to retest key support before a sharp reversal off that level, and last week saw that sweep of local lows into the level. It is now time for ETH bulls to step in if we are indeed seeing a longer-term bottoming structure on the pair; if not, and we turn 0.0215 into resistance on this timeframe, I fully expect the entire rally to be retraced and price to either wick below 0.0175 or attempt to mark out a higher-low around 0.0186. For the bulls, acceptance back above 0.023 would be the sign that this move is a deviation before another attempt at 0.0265, where the 200dMA now sits, above which is clear skies into 0.0295 and then 0.0365.
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Gold:
Price: $3357
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for Gold, we can see that price did break higher a couple of weeks ago, pushing into $3441, but rejected last week, with bearish divergence now forming into the highs. There is still a chance this gets invalidated, but we would need to see acceptance above $3441 going into early July for that to be the case. If not, then my mid-term bearish view on Gold stands, and likely this means some upside for the Dollar inbound. If we close back below $3280, this would look very much like it wants to continue lower towards $29xx over the coming weeks before basing out again. Not much else to add for now on this timeframe...
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see that we had that trendline breakout and bullish market structure into $3441, and on this timeframe there is a bit of upside momentum still in play, but we need to see the double top flipped as resistance turned support in order to expect another leg higher to begin from there, where $36xx becomes the target and longs into that area are favourable. If, instead, we now see price close below $3280, alongside momentum breaking lower, that'll turn structure bearish again too and I would expect $3170 to be retested from there, but ultimately price to continue to grind lower towards that major support cluster around $3000. I would look for shorts below $3280 with hard invalidation at $3441 but likely a tighter stop once some further structure forms.
Crude Oil:
Price: $74.86
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly on Crude, for all the WW3 noise, price is barely back at the January highs, still capped by the 200wMA and in a longer-term downtrend. This isn't really where I would look to be long Crude; rather, we should expect some resistance here and price to at least push back towards the $68 area to potentially form a higher-low. Momentum has, however, put in a higher-high here, which is a notable change. Nonetheless, below $80 structure remains bearish on the higher timeframes. If we do flip $80 into support, however, we have another 20% we could potentially run higher from there into $95 before major resistance, but if we consider incentives by those who control all the levers it does seem unlikely that we get $95 Crude Oil without any serious further escalations. I think at least short-term $80 will cap price and we should see momentum reset as price corrects and looks to form a higher-low.
Daily:
Dropping into the daily, we can see that price did rally hard off that reclaim of $61 support, pushing through $67 with ease and then continuing higher through the April highs at $72, which was flipped as local support. Since, price has broken out above the first trendline resistance from September 2023 and above the 360dMA, above both of which we also had a fakeout in January. If price now breaks and closes back below $72, that would confirm the local top here on Crude for me, and I would expect that range between $65-67 to be retested as a major support cluster. You could look to play that short but honestly I don't think the headline risk is worth it here. Acceptance above $80 = new paradigm and meaningful trend shift.
SPX:
Price: $5967
Weekly:
If we begin with the weekly timeframe for SPX, to be honest you would not guess the past week has seen US intervention in Iran and 24/7 war escalation headlines, because we continue to consolidate above the yearly open at $5906. If we break and close below that level, then I expect the recent grind higher to be unwound, but I am expecting a shallower correction than many would expect and likely the $5683 level holds firm as a higher-low before an attempt at all-time highs. If $5906 holds as support here into early July, seasonal flows favour upside for equities into late July, with positioning not yet stretched and sentiment very much still a wall of worry as it has been since the April lows.
Daily:
Finally, looking at the daily, we can see that price is losing momentum here but we remain very much in a tight choppy range between $5906 and $6036. Acceptance below $5906 likely leads to a 200dMA retest at $5836, with any move below that level then opening up the gap fill and run of the $5769 swing-low into 5683, $above which I expect demand to step in. If you get that pull-back into the first week of July and everyone is screaming $4800 again, I think that will be a massive opportunity to add for the all-time high break.
I hope you've found some value in the read this week!
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