This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 42nd Market Outlook here at Ostium Research, we'll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, focusing specifically on price-action, positioning and event risk for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Copper, DXY and altcoins via OTHERS.
Firstly, let's take a look at the calendar for the moderately busy week ahead:
TUESDAY: US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (YOY) (JUN): (CONSENSUS 2.6% VS PREVIOUS 2.4%)
TUESDAY: NY EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING INDEX (JUL): (CONSENSUS -10.1 VS PREVIOUS -16)
TUESDAY: VARIOUS FED SPEECHES
WEDNESDAY: US PRODUCER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD & ENERGY (YOY) (JUN): (CONSENSUS N/A VS PREVIOUS 3%)
WEDNESDAY: US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (MOM) (JUN): (CONSENSUS 0% VS PREVIOUS -0.2%)
WEDNESDAY: VARIOUS FED SPEECHES
THURSDAY: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: (CONSENSUS 225K VS PREVIOUS 227K)
THURSDAY: US RETAIL SALES (MOM) (JUN): (CONSENSUS 0% VS PREVIOUS -0.9%)
THURSDAY: PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY (JUL): (CONSENSUS -0.4 VS PREVIOUS -4)
THURSDAY: VARIOUS FED SPEECHES
FRIDAY: US MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX (JUL): (CONSENSUS 61.5 VS PREVIOUS 60.7)
Now, let's dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at Bitcoin:
Bitcoin:
Price: $122,177
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at BTC/USD on the weekly, we can see that last week saw price break out beyond prior all-time highs at $112k forcefully, rallying off the open all the way into an all-time high weekly close at $119.1k on growing volume and with a weekly momentum breakout. Naturally, we should now hold above $112k this week if this is not a fake-out or bull trap, which it does not appear to be to me. We are now pushing into the first level of minor resistance that has been marked out for months at $123xxx and if we break through this level this week then my eye is drawn to the 100% fib of the weekly uptrend at $133k as potential major resistance. Beyond that, you're looking at $150k. Not much to add on the higher timeframes given that structure, momentum and price are all pointing higher.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see that price ripped higher off the July open and didn't look back, continuing to build momentum as price closed through prior highs at $112k on solid volume and then kept squeezing, with some consolidation around $117k before pushing higher, with today's price-action taking price within spitting distance of $123k. We have moved - in typical BTC fashion - quite far, quite fast. If we do see some lower timeframe exhaustion here or late longs piling in on derivatives, I could see a shakeout back through that $117k level before a sharp reversal and continuation higher through $123k towards $133k later this month. There are no signs of exhaustion on the daily, so these dips should obviously be seen as opportunities to get long.
Now, looking at potential setups for the week, naturally it's a little bit more difficult when price moves this violently to the upside to find decent levels to trade at (and that's part of what induces the FOMO that traps positioning), but on the long side you probably want to see weakness early this week and hopefully get some bullish divergence below that weekly open, either today or tomorrow. I would not take this long if it came late in the week and you want to see derivatives get flushed on that move lower for it to be higher probability:
On the short side, brave soldiers can look to step in front of this if you get trend exhaustion on the next push higher alongside signs of late longs into those highs, where any subsequent breakdown back below $122k would trap those longs and lead to a weekly open retest:
And here's a snapshot of positioning across Velo and CoinGlass:
And here's 3-month annualized basis:
And Bitcoin OI vs Altcoin OI:
And finally some of the expected 1-week and 1-month liquidation levels:
Ethereum:
Price: $3030
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly for ETH/USD, we finally got that move higher through multi-month resistance at $2600 as anticipated, with price rallying off the July open through $2600 and then through $2850 to close at $2973. Confirming this move, we got a weekly momentum breakout and price is now sat below the final resistance level before the 2025 open retest at $3330. I think it is likely that $2850 now acts as support and price pushes higher into that yearly open in July, where acceptance above that level leads to $4100 being retested as major resistance. Dips are for buying with acceptance back below $2600 now being the line in the sand for bulls.
Daily:
Turning now to the daily, we can see that price has followed the squiggly super closely, with acceptance above $2600 leading to that push through the 360dMA and then continuation into $3050, around which price is now consolidating. Momentum and structure are very much bullish here, with resolution of a multi-month range to the upside. We should now find support above $2850 and then push into $3330, where there is prior trendline support turned resistance and the yearly open. This is where I expect another correction or consolidation to occur, before acceptance above that level leads to continuation into new cycle highs. When this occurs I am not currently clear on, to be honest. There is every chance we rip higher into $3330 this month and then chop around all of August and Sept much like around $2600 before continuation in Q4; or if we accept above that level in July then it's much more probable that momentum takes ETH higher in August. I'll just let price-action play out as we head into the monthly close before making any assessments on the rest of summer...
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Looking now at ETH/BTC, we can see on the weekly that price bounced off reclaimed support at 0.023 last week as expected, though continues to be capped by 0.0264. We need to see a weekly close above that level to be more confident in a sustained reversal, but weekly momentum is breaking higher here, which should be confirmed by price-action this week. If we do see that weekly close above 0.0264, I think we retest 0.0293 swiftly and any acceptance above that level accelerates the reversal, where a rest of summer rally begins to look probable. Ultimately, I do think this is heading towards 0.0417 by year-end.
Daily:
Turning to the daily, this pair is also following the bullish squiggly nicely, reclaiming local support levels and compressing beneath the 200dMA. We have not traded above the 200dMA since last summer, and I think acceptance above this area leads to that 360dMA retest into 0.032 within a few weeks. Bears want to see price capped here and then break back below 0.023, which would likely lead to a sweep of 0.0215 and potentially a reversal of this entire rally if that level gives way. Nothing else to add whilst we remain trapped between these two key levels above and below...
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Copper:
Price: $5.59
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for Copper, we can see that price kept grinding higher off that resistance turned support cluster at $4.70 highlighted back in May and broke through multi-year resistance at $5.17 last week on growing momentum. We closed the week at $5.60, firmly through the prior yearly high and through that resistance cluster, spiking as high as $5.87 - the 1.618 fib extension. We are now in price discovery for Copper, with $6.40 as the next fib level overhead. Dips are for buying, particularly as we move into a growth up + inflation up regime into the back end of 2025 going into 2026. Acceptance back below $5.17 would be the bearish outcome, invalidating this view.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see that whilst it took a few weeks longer than anticipated, price-action played out pretty neatly for the view I held back in May, where we eventually reversed the entire tariff sell-off and retested that high at $5.40, closing above it last week and now consolidating above it as resistance turned support. There is no trend exhaustion on this timeframe and I think any move into $5.39 gets bought this week with price likely to continue higher through $5.87 towards $6.40 in Q3.
DXY:
Price: $97.51
Weekly:
Looking firstly at the weekly for the Dollar Index, we can see that price is bouncing as of last week, putting in a swing-low and pushing back above the July open. This is promising for that squeeze of historical short positioning and dollar bulls want to see this week build on that momentum with a close firmly back above this 97.5 area. Momentum seems to be bottoming out here too but structure is firmly bearish. If we reject below 98.3 this week and then break back below 97.5, that short squeeze looks like a failure and we continue lower towards 94.7 from there.
Daily:
Turning to the daily for some clarity, we remain below local trendline resistance, whilst daily structure is bearish. But daily momentum is breaking higher on this most recent push and daily RSI above 50 alongside a trendline breakout would all but confirm a multi-week rally for me, where I would then expect DXY to push back towards 99 to retest major support turned resistance. Wick above the trendline and reject here and that view is wrong and Dollar weakness persists, with 94.7 as the next support. Not much else to add here for the time being.
OTHERS:
Price: $282bn
OTHERS/USD
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for OTHERS, we can see that alts remain in a multi-year uptrend vs the Dollar, marking out another higher-low above the 200wMA a few weeks ago and now pushing higher, through local resistance back towards the May high at $300bn, below which we are currently sat. This is a huge area of overhead resistance, where acceptance above $300bn confirms another higher-high and a trendline breakout from all-time highs, where the last move above the trendline was the Dec 2024 fakeout. I would then expect the 2025 open to be retested at $335bn, above which we have clear skies all the way into the long-term resistance cluster between $400-$500bn. Rejection here at $300bn leads to a retest of $250bn as support, where I would expect a higher-low to form before that next attempt at higher. Weekly momentum is very much supportive of higher prices.
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see that price broke beyond local trendline resistance and closed back above the 200dMAand 360dMA, which should now act as support on any dips. Daily structure and momentum are bullish with growing volume and we should see $300bn give way either on this attempt or the next, above which we build momentum for that push towards new cycle highs. $500bn is coming for OTHERS before year-end, in my view.
OTHERS/BTC
Weekly:
Looking at OTHERS/BTC, we can see we've put in another swing-low and found support at 2.1mn BTC, pushing now right into support turned resistance, with bearish weekly structure. Momentum is bottoming out but not yet suggestive of a major reversal, and we need to see these local support levels reclaimed to get more confident with altcoin breadth widening out. If we can flip 2.4mn BTC as support here, that looks promising for a retest of the major resistance zone up near that 3mn BTC level. As I've been saying for months, I think we only see that more typical 'alt season' dynamic with widening breadth of outperformance when we reclaim that level. If we reject here and break below 2.1mn BTC, we remain in an alt/btc bear market with no historical support all the way back into 1.42mn BTC.
Daily:
Finally, looking at the daily, we are clearing some local trendline resistance here but remain capped by prior support, which has been characteristic of this downswing since December. Thus, reclaiming that support at 2.39mn BTC would look very much like a structural shift, from which we could expect OTHERS/BTC to push into 2.8mn BTC before the major test up near that 360dMA. It is important to remember that structure is still bearish here, so don't jump the gun on expecting 'throw a dart' to pay off. Altcoins are outperforming - but for now it continues to be very select alts reaping all the rewards.
I hope you've found some value in the read this week!
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